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Old Mendocino County Courthouse Around 1915

California County Pension Debt

 

Stories & Evidence



The Myth of 80% Funding



Stories and Evidence


Choices -

Who Done It?

'98 Retiree Healthcare - '02 Board Policy 40 - Diversion of County Contributions - Part 1

'98 Retiree Healthcare - '02 Board Policy 40 - Diversion of County Contributions - Part 2

'98 Retiree Healthcare - '02 Board Policy 40 - Diversion of County Contributions - Part 3

San Diego - IRS - Excess Earnings

Increase Pensions When Already Deep in Debt

Staffing & Compensation Chaos

Deeply Flawed Pension Fund Financial Statements - Part 1

Deeply Flawed Pension Fund Financial Statements - Part 2

Deeply Flawed Pension Fund Financial Statements - Part 3

Retiree Healthcare

Assumed Investment Profits Too High

Plans to Increase Debt

County Puts Off Bad News

The Myth of 80% Funding

Numerous Financial Errors

 

Mendocino County Retirement officials used to say that "industry best practice" was to target an 80% funding ratio. That was said to be a "good" funding level.

That's a completely absurd financial concept. It's an excuse to be able to spend more now and pay for it by shoving past operating costs onto future residents, taxpayers, future employees and officials as interest-bearing debt.

In my experience there is no greater expert authority on public pensions than Girard Miller - former financial columnist for Governing Magazine and today Chief Financial Officer for the Orange County Employees Retirement Association. His collected articles about the pension mess in Governing (click to see) are must reads for anyone serious about wanting to understand what's going on.

One of his most outstanding articles was "Pension Puffery - 12 half-truths that deserve to be debunked in 2012 (click to see)" published January 5, 2012. One of the 12 half-truths was:

Girard Miller
Half-truth #4: "Experts consider 80 percent to be a healthy funding level for a public pension fund."

This urban legend has now invaded the popular press, so it's about time somebody set the record straight. No panel of experts ever made such a pronouncement. No reputable and objective expert that I can find has ever been quoted as saying this. ... Like UFOs, these "experts" are always unidentified. That's because they don't actually exist. They can't exist, because the pension math and 80 years of data from capital markets history just don't support these unsubstantiated claims.

With only one rare and fleeting exception (which occurs at the very bottom of a business cycle, similar to the green flash in a tropical sunset), 80 percent funding is not a sufficient, sound or healthy funding level for a pension fund. ... Pensions funded at 80 percent are no different than a $400,000 house in a distressed neighborhood with a $500,000 mortgage - you can keep living there if you keep making the payments, but it's underwater and your balance sheet is now upside down no matter how much you try to double-talk it. The only difference is that state and local governments can't mail in the keys to the bank.

Until the last recession, respectable and world-wise actuaries would tell you privately that when a pension system gets its funding ratio above 100 percent, there is a political problem. Employees, unions and politicians suddenly become grave-robbers who invariably break into the tomb to steal enhanced benefits and pension contribution holidays. (See Increase Pensions When Already Deep in Debt - an earlier story in this section about how this happened Mendocino County.) So these savvy advisors historically have tolerated modest underfunding, based on their recurring past experience with the forces of evil in this business. They figured the ideal public plan would drift between 80 to 100 percent funding over a market cycle, and nobody would be hurt if the plans were a "little bit underfunded" in normal times. Obviously that didn't work out so well in the Great Recession, which has forced us all to take a harder look at the math and this conventional wisdom.

As I have explained in one of my very first Governing columns in late 2014 (when the last business cycle was peaking), a fully funded pension plan must today have market-value assets of 125 percent of current accrued actuarial liabilities near the peak of an average business cycle - in order to offset the near-certain loss of stock market values in the following recession. Historically, that is because the 14 recessions since 1926 (including the most recent) have shrunk equity values by 30 percent on average, and equity investments represent about two-thirds of the average public pension funds' portfolio. Real-time pension funding ratios will therefore likely decline by about 20 percent in the average recession, depending on how much the bond portfolio offsets the stock losses and mounting liabilities. So there is not a major public pension plan in the United States today that can be described as "overfunded."

A pension plan that is 100 percent funded at the end of a business expansion will likely lose 20 percent of its value in an average recession, so 80 percent is the bare-minimum "healthy" funding level at the bottom of a recession - and only then. Once the economy begins to recover, it is mathematically necessary for a reasonable funding ratio to be higher than 80 percent and rising on a clear path to full funding. Otherwise, the plan is doomed to be chronically underfunded with current taxpayers supporting retirees who didn't ever work for them. A plan funded at 80 percent going into a recession will likely find itself funded at 65 percent at the cyclical trough - and that's a toxic recipe calling for huge increases in employer contributions to thereafter pay off the unfunded liabilities. That's why today's 70 percent funding ratios are a legitimate concern and a financial burden on younger generations who will inherit this problem that their elders keep sidestepping.

(Me talking - as of June 2014 Mendocino County's Pension Fund was 75% funded based on the market value of its investments. BUT - the County still owed $72 million on Pension Obligation Bonds. So from the County's point of view - and the People's point of view - our total unfunded pension debt meant the Pension Fund was really only 63% funded! See Profound Failure of Pension Funding Plans)

Just think for one minute about what would happen if Europe unravels or China lands hard and we suffer another average recession from today's levels. That would take most pension funding ratios well below 60 percent and trigger a more horrendous multi-year budgetary catastrophe for public employers nationwide. Pension trustees and plan administrators with funding ratios at or below today's national average should be asking that question on the record in formal board sessions - if they understand how fiduciaries are expected to perform their duties.

One can argue that a pension plan with 80 percent funding today can be deemed prudently funded if it adopts a more aggressive amortization schedule that defrays its unfunded liabilities over the average remaining service period of incumbent employees. ... Anything less should invite suspicion and deserves serious reconsideration of the plan's funding policies and benefits levels. And if employees put skin in the game by agreeing to hereafter bear one-half the cost of paying down the plan's unfunded liabilities during their working years, we can then talk about 80 percent funding as a logically "healthy" or "sustainable" number.



 
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